Thanks for Houston, Boston and Atlanta for helping out with the mock draft for 1991. Hopefully you'll find the information below to be useful.
Round One
1 Jeff Bagwell - California
2 Jim Thome - Houston
3 Bernie Williams - Baltimore
4 Mike Mussina - Mets
5 Chuck Knoblauch - White Sox
6 Mo Vaughn - Yankees
7 Juan Guzman - Braves
8 Kenny Lofton - Cubs
9 Ivan Rodriguez - Oakland
0 Darryl Kile - Houston
1 John Vanderwal - Houston
2 Pat Hentgen - Mariners
3 Reggie Sanders - Kansas City
4 Vinny Castilla - Cleveland
5 Jeff Fassero - Detroit
6 Derek Bell - St. Louis
7 Rod Beck - Kansas City
8 Eric Karros - Detroit
9 Roberto Hernandez - White Sox
0 Denny Neagle - Milwaukee
1 Chito Martinez - California
2 Ed Sprague - Atlanta
3 Warren Newsom - Toronto
4 Steve Foster - Minnesota
5 Jose Hernandez - Texas
6 Mike Timlin - Kansas City
Round Two
1 Carlos Rodriguez - California
2 Reggie Jefferson - Houston
3 Eddie Taubensee - Baltimore
4 Scott Brosius - Mets
5 Frank Castillo - White Sox
6 Andy Ashby - Yankees
7 Bret Barberie - San Diego
8 Jeremy Hernandez - San Francisco
9 Harvey Pulliam - Oakland
0 Mark Wohlers - Cincinnati
1 Joel Johnston - Atlanta
2 Pete Schourek - Seattle
3 Mike Remlinger - Kansas City
4 Cal Eldred - Toronto
5 Heathcliff Slocumb - Detroit
6 Mike Magnante - St. Louis
7 Scott Livingstone - Milwaukee
8 Patrick Lennon - Detroit
9 Jeff Juden - Montreal
0 Doug Henry - Milwaukee
1 Brian Drahman - Los Angeles
2 Terry Matthews - San Diego
3 Arthur Rhodes - San Francisco
4 Keith Mitchell - Minnesota
5 Gary Cooper - Texas
6 Calvin Jones - Los Angeles
Huzzah, huzzah, the ATR finally turns 50. It’s hard to imagine that a little under a year ago, there was a CDL without an ATR, but now there are 50 traditional ATR Reports and quite a few specials, such as the ATR Mocks the Draft, the ATR 1991 Season Preview and the ATR’s scathing expose on the Oakland Athletics.
And in this special issue, I have something for my loyal audience and my loyal audience has something for me. As I threatened in ATR Volume 48, I have a special contest for all interested parties. WHO AM I??? The rules for the contest are simple, anyone (other than myself of course) can post a guess as to who I am over the CDL Messageboard. I’ve set up an account over there and started a thread, “Who is the Anonymous Trade Reporter?” The only limitation is that anyone who knows my secret identity cannot make a guess as to who I am. The people who know my non-secret identity are the two Co-Commissioners, Matt Skutley and Brian Marshall, the Assistant Commissioner, Sam Stauder and of course, the ATR himself, though as I stated above, I am allowed to guess in my own game should I choose.
And what did my loyal audience give to me on this special occasion? Trades by my favorite whipping boys, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays. What more could the ATR ask for on this anniversary?
Anyway, enough pre-amble, let’s get to the first trades of 1991.
Cleveland receives P Brian Holman.
Montreal receives 1B Mark Carreon and 3B Dale Sveum.
Brian Holman has been a tremendously successful minor league hurler. He has posted ERAs below 3 in each of the last three seasons, but was never going to crack the vaunted Expos rotation. He has the potential to be a solid third or fourth starter in Cleveland this season. While the Indians pitching situation is not nearly as dire as some like to paint it, Holman should be a solid addition to the Indians’ staff this season.
To acquire another starting pitcher, the Indians had to give away a pair of offensive players. Mark Carreon shouldn’t be anyone’s idea of a starting first baseman, but he would make an excellent bat off the bench. The promising power potential that Carreon has always had is unlikely to ever bear fruit at the major league level. That only leaves Carreon with the ability to hit for a decent, but not exceptional batting average without any other solid offensive skill. Dale Sveum is best suited for a utility infielder role. He should never start 50 games in a season, but could be a valuable asset as a reserve. The problem for the Expos is that they are counting on Carreon for 500 AB this season. Hopefully David Segui will push Carreon aside soon, but the Expos might as well have sucked it up and sent Segui out there this season for the same amount of production.
Winner: Cleveland
Chicago (A) receives P Andy Benes and 1B John Olerud.
St. Louis receives P Mike Walters and Jamie Navarro and SS Omar Vizquel.
Fred McGriff fans rejoice! His heir apparent has been shipped out to the Windy City. Actually, acquiring John Olerud is a dynamite acquisition for the White Sox. Despite being a high first round selection many seasons ago, Don Mattingly is an atrocious first baseman. John Olerud should be able to step into the starting job right away this season. Down the line, Olerud should be one of the better first basemen in the league with his solid power and excellent plate discipline. He compliments many of the other young White Sox on what is one of the up and coming teams in the American League. However, I don’t think the same can be said of Andy Benes. Benes looks like a pitcher who might struggle at the bottom of the rotation for a number of seasons, occasionally putting together a good start, but generally getting shellacked. I think here is where the deal starts to show some cracks for the White Sox.
The deal would probably be a good one for the White Sox if Benes for Navarro was a wash. However, Navarro looks like he could be a good starting pitcher for the Reds. He lacks some ability in getting the ball hit to his fielders, but he makes up for it by excelling at throwing strikes, keeping the ball in the park and striking out a ton of batters. The success of his career will be determined by his ability to keep lefthanders from hitting .320 against him.
The Cardinals also improved their club with their two other acquisitions. Mike Walters is a free agent to be at season’s end, but has been one of the most dominating closers of recent vintage. I am going to wager that his 0.81 ERA in 1988 is one of the lowest of all time for a reliever who threw a decent number of innings. (Checking around a bit, I see that Dan Quisenberry posted a 0.39 ERA in 1979 and there might be another season more similar to Walters in the CDL Dark Ages (1969-1973) where not as much information is readily available.) He should replace the departed Bruce Sutter as the dependable force in the ninth inning that wins close games for the Cardinals. Omar Vizquel looks like he could be a solid shortstop. Going into the season, the Cardinals had a horrible scar at shortstop, but if Vizquel takes one step forward as a hitter, the Cardinals should have filled the biggest hole in their roster for the next decade.
Winner: St. Louis
Los Angeles receives 3B Floyd Rayford.
Cincinnati receives P Ricky Wright.
The ATR requests the freedom of Floyd Rayford and Cincinnati acquiesces by setting the man free. This is a great deal for the Dodgers. They filled one of their biggest holes with a quality hitter, though not quite an all-world defender. With each day that passes, drawing us closer to the beginning of the season, I think the Dodgers are most likely the team to beat in the NL West.
To get Rayford, the Dodgers parted ways with reliever Ricky Wright. Having pitched most of his career in the friendly confines of Los Angeles and San Diego, Wright has yet to have a bad season. He’s never been one of the best relievers available to the teams he is on, but is a solid guy at the back end of any bullpen. The Reds certainly could have procured a better reliever than Rayford for a good third baseman, but the silver tongue of the Dodgers’ management prevailed in this case.
Winner: Los Angeles
Montreal receives P Bruce Ruffin.
San Diego receives OF Kevin Romine.
Who trades for Kevin Romine? You know, I’m starting to think I might need to find a new whipping boy with my approval for both the Dodgers and Blue Jays trades this time around. At first, I thought I was getting soft in my old age, but instead I realize I need a new whipping boy and San Diego is rocketing up the list of possibilities. (Though to be honest, no one could ever replace Los Angeles or Toronto in my heart.)
Look, Kevin Romine is not even a serviceable outfielder. Trotting him out there is like saying, I play in the National League East and can win my division with 84 wins. Unfortunately for the Padres, they play in the brutal and cut-throat NL West where 84 wins guarantees you didn’t win the division. Perhaps Montreal has some kind of mysterious hold over the Padres management, since they seem to take whatever crappy OF they throw at them for serviceable players.
Bruce Ruffin is just that, a serviceable player. He may never crack the rotation of the Expos, since they have so many star pitchers, but he looks like a candidate for long relief. He might not work out as a good option, but he still has upside. Kevin Romine never had upside. He’s just a poor outfielder who gets to be maligned by yours truly.
Winner: Montreal
Cincinnati receives CF Ken Griffey Jr.
Toronto receives 2B Mike Sharperson, P Rob Murphy and Cincinnati’s first round Amateur draft choice in 1991.
There really isn’t all that much that needs to be said about Ken Griffey. He should be one of the best center fielders for the next decade. He is 21, has the ability to do everything a hitter can and was a deserving first overall draft choice in 1989. His downside is that he is injury prone and the shortsighted Blue Jay management thought about that too much after he was lost at the end of last season, possibly costing the Blue Jays from advancing in the playoffs.
The Blue Jays did get an interesting set of talent in return. The first round draft pick is pretty high in the draft and perhaps they could have replaced Griffey with Kenny Lofton long term, if the pick wasn’t traded before the draft. Mike Sharperson excels at getting on base, but doesn’t have a lot of sock in his bat and could lose some of those valuable on base skills this season as he is currently over his head. Rob Murphy, is a top flight reliever, who like Walters above, could be a free agent at season’s end. The Blue Jays will probably find the money to resign him this offseason, but might be forced to let him go, as they are perilously close to the salary cap.
The Blue Jays probably did get a bit more talent than the Reds and will win the deal because of this. However, I think the Blue Jays are building a team that is going to flame out in a short period of time. They have traded away two first overall draft choices in Gary Sheffield and Ken Griffey Jr. What both these players brought to the table was an offensive roundness that most Blue Jays lack. Too much of the Blue Jays’ offense comes from a single source, the ability to draw walks. This amazing strength of the Blue Jays offense becomes a weakness come playoff time when the teams they face trot out pitchers who are aces because they control the strike zone as well anyone. A lineup built around Sheffield, Griffey and Thomas would have been a force that could have contended with any pitcher in the league. But a lineup of Thomas, Henderson and the walk brigade can be shut down by a decent pitcher with good control. The Blue Jays look like a team that will win 2 or 3 division titles in the next few seasons, but will consistently fall short in the playoffs. And seriously, would it be the 50th ATR without one of my whipping boys being made an example of?
Winner: Toronto
I just want to add a disclaimer for those of you who are new or are sensitive. The ATR is all meant in good fun. I hope those of you who read it take nothing said here personally and enjoy it for what it is, one person’s views on all the trades that go down in the CDL.
Sincerely Yours,
Anonymous Trade Reporter
Trading has been brought to a standstill, much to the chagrin of the ATR. While awaiting the flurry of trades that the ATR expects to snowball over him this weekend, I have decided to predict the divisions for 1991, something I have been exceptionally poor at over the last few seasons.
AL East
1. Cleveland – I’m certain that Senor Ritter will huff and puff and try to blow the ATR’s house down, but it’s made of brick, so I wouldn’t waste my time. Why Cleveland you ask? At first, I was going to chalk it up to a gut feeling, but then I looked at the teams and chalked it up to Toronto standing pat with the bottom half of a lineup that looks rather poor and the fact that the Indians have been serious about improving themselves this offseason. They should be able to put together a deep rotation that allows Randy Johnson to be the fifth starter. Their offense is not the best in the league, but it has enough depth to cover most spots in the lineup. The addition of two aging veterans in the guise of Andre Dawson and Dave Winfield should ensure that the Indians’ outfield does not sink their chances of winning their first division in 16 seasons.
2. Toronto – Much to the ATR’s surprise, the Blue Jays managed to win the AL East this past season. I think this will be the retrenching season where disappointment reigns supreme. The Blue Jays have a few truly great players in Thomas, Valenzuela and Henderson. Griffey has the potential to join them as a future star this season as well. But nearly half the payroll goes to Henderson and Valenzuela, which means that there are some real clunkers towards the bottom of the lineup and the bullpen, which is just terrible. These deficiencies will be exposed this season, forcing them to scramble and fall short of the AL Wild Card. Though, the Toronto 1991 will be a lot like St. Louis’s 1990, a year of retrenchment before making the next step forward.
3. Boston – Three starting pitchers making $40,000,000 will kill just about any team in the league, especially when one of them is Don Aase, who has only posted leaderboard appearances in walks the last few seasons. The real problem in 1991 will be the offense. Aside from Fielder, there is no big offensive threat on the Red Sox. There are some decent players like Sandberg, Presley and Gonzalez, but the holes in the lineup are huge and the lack of young talent combine to make the Red Sox a team in major decline. My bold prediction of the year is that Jim Fulgham will be elsewhere by season’s end.
4. Baltimore – Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Orioles have another high draft choice this season and would be well served by not drafting Mike Mussina, but rather drafting anyone who can improve this sad sack offense. Palmeiro, Blauser and Buhner are a good start to rebuilding the once mighty Oriole Offense and the young pitchers down on the farm are the best set of arms in the CDL. But the Orioles are still two or three seasons away from making a real run at the AL East again.
5. New York (A) – The WINNER of the Pedro Martinez sweepstakes. 50 wins will be an uphill battle for the Yankees. Walker and Alomar are a good 1-2 offensive punch and Sam Horn is a decent power hitter. After that, it gets ugly in a hurry. I would talk about the pitching, but Pedro in 1992 won’t be enough to turnaround this staff, which is just atrocious. The $20,000,000 payroll is shocking from a team that should make money hand over fist in the largest market in country. But having not won a pennant since 1964 tends to put a damper on people’s enthusiasm. I should also say that Randy Velarde isn’t a bad player, but you never hear about him, since he plays in New York.
AL Central
1. Minnesota – A smart man never bets against a Groening. I will take full advantage of that axiom to prove my intelligence. The AL Central is filled with powerful teams and the Twins are certainly one of them. Pitching is once again the Twins’ central strength. They have four top notch starting pitchers and are slowly breaking in Todd Stottlemyre as another in the long line of successful Twins’ hurlers. Tom Henke anchors a very strong bullpen, which will be more necessary this year than any other. The reason is that the Twins’ offense looks like it is on a razor thin margin for error. Only Kal Daniels looks anything like a true superstar. However, the Twins appear to lack any real weaknesses in their lineup and should be able to at least field a league average offense this season. And if things become dire, there is enough talent on the farm to add another talented outfielder via trade. Besides, you never bet against a Groening.
2. Milwaukee (Wild Card) – There is no doubt in my mind that the Brewers would be favored to win any other division in baseball, including the NL West. (The other Groening led division.) The Brewers have two legitimate offensive superstars in Edgar Martinez and Barry Bonds. The rest of their lineup is filled with solid players like Paul Molitor, who will keep the offense afloat around these superstars. The pitching is young, though a bit more iffy. Al Leiter and Jack McDowell should both be counted on to have big seasons, though after that, you can’t quite tell if the rest of the pitching will hold up in the playoffs. A big, splashy FA signing would have really helped the Brewers, but that’s mostly wishcasting at this point in time.
3. Kansas City – The team most likely to surprise someone and make the playoffs. The Royals have as a good a core of talent as anyone in the league. Maddux and Schilling should be a dominating 1-2 pitching punch this season and if Youmans can finally get his career on track, the Royals might finally break the 22 season playoff drought that has plagued this franchise since Day 1. The offense received a major boost in the form of Kirk Gibson, who joins a talented cast featuring Ron Gant, Paul O’Neill, Domingo Ramos and Glenn Davis. In fact, if it wasn’t for the Groening factor, I would peg KC for a playoff spot this season, but you go with history in cases like this. The bullpen could use another arm and the infield other than Ramos is a little thin, but the Royals are definitely a team to watch in 1991.
4. Detroit – The Tigers are by no means a bad team. In fact, in most divisions, they would rank easily in the top two. However, there is no contesting the fact that the AL Central is the best division in the CDL. The Tigers haven’t quite recovered from the loss of Jason Thompson and Dave Henderson two seasons ago. The offense now relies on an aging Gary Carter and Claudell Washington to keep the team in games. I still can’t figure out who is the everyday shortstop, which is a scary thought at such a late juncture in the season. The pitching on the Tigers is still top notch. Morris still has a few more good seasons in him and the Tigers appear to have one of the most fearsome bullpens in the league. However, on the whole, it appears that this current teams’ window of opportunity have closed and may have to move on to rebuilding in a year or so.
5. Chicago (A) – The White Sox are the only team in the division rebuilding at the moment. To be honest, the White Sox are making good strides towards being competitive. Perhaps 1992 or more realistically 1993 will hold good fortune for the White Sox. They have a collection of interesting young arms. If one or two of them makes the great leap forward, the White Sox could add an established starter in FA and really get the team going forward. The offense is going to be based around a bunch of talented players like John Olerud and Mariano Duncan, but there doesn’t appear to be a legitimate star amongst the entire group, something the White Sox might remedy as soon as this draft.
AL West
1. Texas – Texas can mail this season in as far the AL West is concerned. The Ranger offense is probably not strong enough to get them into the World Series again though. I’m fairly certain the Rangers best offensive player is 40 year old Free Agent Acquisition Lyman Bostock. Nothing against Lyman Bostock, but he isn’t exactly the type of player one thinks of being the best hitter on a championship team. But the Rangers’ strong pitching is still very much around and the rest of the AL West will need a miracle to reach .500 this season. That should be enough to make the playoffs again in the AL West.
2. Oakland – Call it a hunch, but I think Oakland could win 75 games this season. The rebuilding is going nicely in Oakland, though a bit slow. Albert Belle is already making an impact in Oakland and there are a number of talented infielders on the roster, though unfortunately for the Athletics, no one with any proficiency at the plate can play shortstop. The pitching should be bolstered this season by ace pitching prospect Kevin Ritz. Dunne and Reed should also take a step forward this season, pushing the Athletics closer and closer to respectability.
3. California – Last season was an abomination for 1988 World Series teams as they finished 1-2 at the bottom of the standings. The Angels have started to pick up the broken pieces of yesterday’s team. Adding Jeff Bagwell with the first overall pick to the lineup and a couple of starting pitchers in Pastore and Fidrych ensures that Sutcliffe’s days are numbered. And by numbered, I mean finished. The Angels should be back on top of this division by 1993, of course on top of the AL West in 1993 is likely to have the same ring as winning the NL East in the 1980s. 80 wins and a prayer.
4. Seattle – This is the third time I have looked at a team and said, I have no clue who is even qualified to play shortstop for these teams. Meanwhile, the Expos have locked up the futures market on serviceable shortstops, even though he can only play one at a time. It’s time to say close the late 80’s Mariners’ window of opportunity. You always felt they were going to be the first expansion team to make the playoffs, but the Blue Jays beat them to the punch. With most of the key Mariners of those teams gone, it is time to fold the tent and trade Henderson, Ghelfi and Joe Carter for anything the Mariners can get. It’s a long way to the top if you want to rock n roll and the Mariners need to start working their way down the road to get back to the top. And the good news for the Mariners is that trading these three players should put them in the thick of the Pedro Martinez sweepstakes, with the loser getting Mike Piazza. The Mariners will make the playoffs someday, but today is not that day.
NL East
1. Atlanta – You know, the Braves should have won the division title these last five years, but have to be the most snake bitten franchise in the CDL. If you look at the Braves player by player against any other team in the National League, you will see that they might even be the favorites to win the NL Pennant this season. They have three great pitchers in Dave Stewart, Rick Aguilera, Steve Ontiveros. An offense filled with talented hitters like Will Clark, Garry Templeton, Bill Schroder and Eric Davis. The only player they lose this offseason was Kirk Gibson, who will be replaced by Alex Cole, who is a big step up in Centerfield, as he can actually field the ball. The bullpen looks very good as well. Luck might cut them down at the end of the day, but the Braves are the team to beat in the NL East.
2. Montreal (Wild Card) – Of course, the Braves had better win this season, because the Expos are set to put a stranglehold on the NL East akin to those the Rangers had in the AL West and the Red Sox in the AL East during the 1980s. I don’t think there is a team in the league that has more talent than the Expos at their disposal. There are still a few weaknesses that were exposed in 1990 and will be exposed again in 1991. There is no first baseman ready to fill that hole, though the thought is that Dave Segui should be ready to hit at the bottom of the order in 1992 and play 1B. Craig Biggio will step in to play 2B this season, though could move to catcher once Tim Naehring is ready for an everyday job in 1992. Riles and Jurak should provide enough offense as stopgaps at shortstop and Howard Johnson is a legitimately great hitter in this lineup. Pitching is the real story as they trot out the best rotation in the league with Glavine, Brown, Guzman and Garrlets. The bullpen is a little thin and Carreon isn’t a real answer at 1B. Combined with the hangover of their first playoff appearance, I think the Expos will fail to win the division this year for the only time until the late 1990s.
3. Philadelphia – A short, but magical run has come to a screeching halt. There are a number of talented players on the Phillies, but the offense is very reliant on everyone hitting for a high batting average. Only Mark McGwire (who hits for an embarrassingly low batting average) and Tim Raines have any secondary skills on the Phillies. The pitching is also a little thin, the back end of the rotation and bullpen could be quite poor, though the addition of Todd Worrell was a step in the right direction. The Phillies have the capacity to surprise, but not only in a good way, but also a bad way.
4. New York (N) – The Mets are in a terrible situation. They have no obvious weaknesses and no obvious strengths aside from catcher, where they suffer from an embarrassment of riches. That makes it tough for a team to figure out who needs to be replaced and who needs to be kept. The offense should be better than it is, since there is no one really bad starting for them, but the upside is that aside from Berryhill, there is no one really good starting for them. The rotation is just the same, though someone will have to step aside for Fernandez and McDonald in the near future. The Mets will probably draft Mike Mussina with the 4th pick overall, which is a very defensible move, though they would certainly be better off getting a Mo Vaughn or Jim Thome to build their offense around. The Mets should sneak into a Wild Card race or two in the next five seasons, but seem to be stuck in a dangerous neutral gear that might require blowing the entire team up and starting anew.
NL Central
1. St. Louis – The World Series hangover was staggering last season. The 1989 champions came out of the gate like no team ever had only to fall apart in June/July. The Cardinals never could get it together and make their move into first place again, leaving the defending champions out of the dance come playoff time. This season will be very different. The Cardinals need to fill that gaping hole at shortstop, but even if they don’t, the other seven positions in their lineup are so strong, that it should be enough to carry the Cardinals deep into the playoffs. The bullpen should be very strong next season, as the Cardinals have added a few key components to their strong bullpen. The one source of concern is the rotation. Gooden and Barrios are a quality 1-2, but the back end of that rotation looks bleak and if someone doesn’t step forward, the Pirates are still lurking in the corners, ready to defend their title.
2. Pittsburgh – The last defending champion to make the playoffs was the 1987 Minnesota Twins. The streak continues this season. The Pirates did everything in their power to get over the hump for one last hurrah and did so, capping off their season with the first World Series win for the Pirates since 1960. Aside from Ozzie Smith, most of the key regulars have returned to Pittsburgh. The team is another year older and a bit more satisfied coming off their World Series victory. The pitching should be very good this season, as a full year of Mark Langston will not hurt the Pirates. I just think that the floating weakness that Dale Murphy is not covering and a return of Julio Franco to Shortstop will leave the Pirates vulnerable to missing the playoffs, like so many other World Series champions of recent vintage.
3. Chicago (N) – The Cubs are a team that is in dire need of pitching, akin to the way Mars needs women. Underwood is a decent starting pitcher and Thigpen is a high end closer, but after that, you need to close your eyes and squint to see championship caliber pitchers. The offense has its virtues. The best infield in the league is probably in Chicago with Boggs, Trammell, Kruk and Marshall. Unfortunately, the outfield is in dire need of an upgrade. Sosa will be a boost in a few seasons, but until then, throwing out floatsam like Henry Cotto and Gerald Young will not put the Cubs into contention. And a fascination with players who only have the skill to hit home runs like Mike Marshall and Hector Villenueva, make the Cubs susceptible to long scoring droughts and difficulty scoring runs in some of the tough pitchers’ park in the National League.
4. Cincinnati – Free Floyd Rayford. The Reds have one legitimate offensive threat in Rayford and they refuse to let him start against righthanders so Tom O’Malley can get his licks in. Things are looking bleak in Cincinnati, but things always look bleak in Cincinnati even when things are going great. The pitching is mediocre at best, though will look good in front of the generally sterling Cincinnati defense. The offense lacks real punch, with the aforementioned Rayford being the best hitter at the Reds disposal. The really bad news is that it will take a few seasons for the Reds to get back to the top of the NL Central, since the only quality player under 26 at their disposal is Steve Finley. I think a really high pick is in the cards for the Reds future.
NL West
1. San Francisco – Honestly, these four teams could end up in any order this season. The only team that made any strides to improve themselves were the Houston Astros, who finished 40 or so games out of first place last season. With that in mind, I go back to the old adage, never bet against a Groening. The Giants are nearing the end of their second great window of opportunity. The only question is whether or not Candelaria and Hernandez have one last good season left in them. The answer is probably no, but I couldn’t justify picking the Padres with their pitching, the Dodgers with their hitting or the Astros with their prospects/suspects over the Giants. However, Hansen looks like an ace and the Giants bullpen, is as always, the most formidable group assembled. The lack of a big offseason move seems surprising, but I’m sure the Giants have something big up their sleeve. The offense is bit of a mixed bag. The infield is filled with sensational hitters and the outfield is filled with known mediocrities. This team will win between 80 and 95 games, which is probably the expect range on all four of these NL West teams this season.
2. San Diego – When reason fails to distinguish four teams from one another, just put them in the same order as the year before. These are truly the best seasons ever for the San Diego Padres. They have a very good offense that only needs another outfielder to be the best in the league. There are plenty of options in the bullpen for next season, including an underutilized Calvin Schiraldi. And the starting pitching could be good again, though they Padres should be worried that Tewksbury, Darwin and Lynch don’t turn into pumpkins and that Tom Gordon is not ready. I don’t think the Padres will get back into the playoffs this season, but if they keep riding their magic star while Candelaria and Hernandez realize they are nearly 40 and not nearly the pitchers they were 10 seasons ago, that first division crown could be theirs.
3. Los Angeles – This should be the team that wins the NL West this season. Of course, this is the team that should have won the NL West last season as well. How do you run Mike Witt, Don Robinson and Neil Allen out there for 90 starts and not win the division is well beyond my feeble grasp of logic. Perhaps 122 starts for them and 40 more for Pascual Perez or Dave Dravecky is the answer. The bullpen looks to be all there as well, though Henneman is really not quality closer material, more of a solid middle reliever. The offense, however, needs to be at the top range of productive to ensure this won’t be a race. Milligan and Johnson are both older players who came over via trades and should be very productive players. Roof and Roenicke need to get on base at least 38 percent of the time to be really good players, but both of them have the potential to do so. The infield is the problem. Shortstop and catcher both look undermanned and third base looks like a giant .200/.250/.300 scar with mediocre defense. The bottom of the lineup is the same problem the Blue Jays have and will probably be enough to deep six a very talented rotations’ shot to win it all in October.
4. Houston Astros – The Final Team to write about and almost certainly the most confusing. There are a ton of talented young Astros on the farm, but your guess is as good as mine as to who gets the call to come up and who stays on the farm. The bullpen looks completely revamped by free agents. The rotation will be a mix of dregs and rookies. The offense has two established players in Terry Pendleton, who was a surprising all-star last season and Jay Bell, which means the team has a shortstop, though Bell has yet to put together that season that says, WOW, I’m a great player like my talent suggests. All things considered, that will probably be this year. Jody Davis is a fine addition at catcher, but when you are counting on Von Hayes as your best outfielder and Pete O’Brien as your starting 1B, you get to be picked for fourth place in the NL West.
To complete this exercise, I’ll just throw out some playoff predictions as well.
LDS
Minnesota 3 – Cleveland 2
Milwaukee 3 – Texas 1
St. Louis 3 – Montreal 1
Atlanta 3 – San Francisco 0
LCS
Milwaukee 4 – Minnesota 2
St. Louis 4 – Atlanta 3
World Series
St. Louis 4 – Milwaukee 1
Being the former owner of the Expos, I would like to make this press statement saying that, I am very proud of the new manager of the Expos, I knew the rebuilding I started in '84 would pay off sometime, sadly I could not give the team what they needed as manager, which was obvious as I only had one playoff appearance in 11 years. Skeptically I let the team go, but now, not only am I satisfied with the new management but am absolutely happy that the talent I have passed down is not wasted and I wish the new Expos the best of luck, as I believe they will be the team of the nineties....... Also I will be watching and putting my two cents worth into this great league.