Week of September 21, 2003

Volume 39 of the ATR Report

This article was posted on Saturday, September 27 2003 by Anonymous_Trade_Reporter.

The ATR comes back with a double dose today. No sense in letting the list of unevaluated trades go unmentioned on the frontpage, when I can do twice the normal ATR Reports today! To the trades!

Pittsburgh receives LF Tito Landrum.
California receives Pittsburgh’s third round Amateur draft choice in 1991.

You know, a stack of third round picks is not going to make a rebuilding effort. However, being able to only get third round picks for your players will leave you with precious few pieces in the rebuilding phase that you will want.

The California Fire Sale isn’t exactly propelling the Angels on the fast track to the top. The Pirates, however, were wise to snap up Tito Landrum for such a price. Tito is a solid outfielder, but will never be confused with greatness. However, he is cheap and is a quality hitter. He will be a good free agent pick up this offseason. In the mean time, he is a solid contributor for a team that is trying to get back to the postseason.

Winner: Pittsburgh

San Francisco receives P John Candelaria
Minnesota receives Ps Kent Mercker and Mike Flanagan, Boston’s second round Amateur draft choice in 1990 and San Francisco’s third round Amateur draft choice in 1991.

I wish I knew that one of the five best starting pitchers in the CDL was available for free. Yeah, I know Candelaria is a FA to be at season’s end and I know his ERA was around 6 at the time of the trade…but still. Since the trade, he is 10-4 with a WHIP well under 1 and an ERA of 1.94.

At the time of the deal, it looked like it was time to write off the Giants, who have moved back into contention with the addition of an ace like this. And what did the Twins get for him? A late second round pick, a so-so third round pick, a 37 year old pitcher who had an ERA of 6 the season before and a 21 year old reliever, whose upside looks like the last man in the bullpen.

The ATR has nothing else to say about this trade. But if anyone can let me know a good reason for the Twins making this deal, please send them to anonymoustradereporter@yahoo.com

Winner: San Francisco

Philadelphia receives P Mike Scott
Houston receives C John Russell and Philadelphia’s first round Amateur draft choice in 1991.

Raise your hand if you thought Mike Scott was a good deal more valuable than John Candelaria. Since I assume no one would agree with that statement, one of these deals makes no sense. I propose it is the former deal.

Mike Scott has been traded for a late first round draft pick twice in the last two seasons. That’s a fair price for a 33 year old SP with great ratings and only good success. The Phillies desperately needed a second starting pitcher to team with David Cone if they were going to go far in the postseason again this season. Scott is that player. He has good stuff and is having the finest season of his career. The Phillies might actually go all the way this season if they can keep the Braves from passing them.

However, this was an odd deal for the Astros. They were a good team at this point in time and could have made another deep run with Witt and Scott as their top two, especially with the amazing success of Marty Bystrom this season. But I guess once you make it to the World Series, you have to start rebuilding right away. My question is did I miss the memo on rebuilding after going to the Series. Additionally, the Astros picked up a quality catcher in John Russell. He will probably never be an All-Star, but you could do a lot worse than running Russell out of there in a platoon.

Winner: Philadelphia

Milwaukee receives P Tony Brizzolara.
California receives P Frank Tanana and Milwaukee’s first round Amateur draft choice in 1991.

The California Fire Sale finally realizes something useful for the future in a first round pick. Brizzolara is one of the most surprising aces in the history of the CDL. A second round pick who took six seasons to get his act together, before magically finding his way to ace status in 1985. Brizzolara gives the Brewers another front line starting pitcher and could be the difference maker in getting the Brewers into the playoffs for the first time since 1985.

For Brizzolara, the Angels received a first round pick. Almost certainly they will end up with this pick being in the bottom of the draft, possibly as low as 26. But that’s not a bad deal for a team that is headed downhill. Unfortunately, the Angels also had to take on the salary of Frank Tanana. Tanana for years had been a fine starting pitcher. However, before the start of the season, he drove his career to the edge of the cliff and jumped. Still, this is the type of condition a rebuilding team has to take on if they want to get some good quality young talent.

Winner: Milwaukee

Boston receives P Floyd Youmans and RF Randy Bush
Los Angeles receives P Kevin Gross and RF Von Hayes

A pure challenge trade, which is the best way to end an ATR report. Both teams get an outfielder and a starting pitcher. Now, the real question in evaluating this deal is what is really wrong with Floyd Youmans. A high draft choice, great ratings, absolutely poor results. If the Red Sox have the cure for what ails Youmans, this deal will end up being a steal for them. However, Toronto, St. Louis and Los Angeles have already given up on this young and talented hurler, which says a lot about him.

Kevin Gross is a few years older and somewhat less talented than Youmans. However, he has a track record filled with success, something Youmans has never tasted. So, despite Gross’s FA status, I think the Dodgers won this half of the deal.

That leaves the outfielders to discuss. Randy Bush is a horrible fielder. He inspires nightmares in his own pitchers with his leatherworking. But Bush is a quality hitter, with good power and ability to hit for average. He has been a little subpar this season, but would make a fine designated hitter. The Dodgers received Von Hayes. Von Hayes can do it all. He can run, field, hit for exception power, draw 100 walks in a season…well, he can’t keep his batting average above .200 on a regular basis. How long before the complete lack of primary skills completely depletes a player’s secondary skill value. I think Hayes is a good test of this theory. This is really a push for these teams. The Red Sox could look good five years down the road, but I’d rather have the good pitcher with the good track record over the great pitcher with the poor track record.

Winner: Los Angeles

Volume 38 of the ATR Report

This article was posted on Saturday, September 27 2003 by Anonymous_Trade_Reporter.

The ATR is back with a new batch of trade analysis. It seems each time I come back to look at these deals, there are even more trades that need my expert touch. With that in mind, let’s look at some trades.

Chicago (A) receives OF Dwight Evans and C Bill Nahorodny.
California receives C Milt Hill and Chicago (A)’s third round Amateur draft choices in 1989 and 1990.

That’s quite possibly the best division I have ever seen. I mean, the White Sox could be in second place in a few divisions, but are in dead last with a .490 winning percentage in the AL Central. The White Sox looked like legitimate contenders this season and adding a couple of solid veterans seemed like a great idea. Dwight Evans hasn’t been the quality hitter that the White Sox expected this season, but when the deal was made, most people thought Evans could be a solid offensive force. And Nahorodny is a good catcher who has pushed the White Sox forward this season. He will never be an All-Star, but there are a lot of guys that are worse to trot out there everyday.

Milt Hill was once one of the best Catchers in the CDL. A six-time All-Star, including his first five years in the CDL, Hill was a true force at his position, who will soon be forgotten. Now, he is nothing more than the salary dump to make this deal work. Additionally, the Angels received two third rounders for these vets. They are most likely middle of the round picks, but once the Angels decided to blow up their team, this was the best they could get for these 35+ year olds. A decision that still boggles the mind at this point in time.

Winner: Chicago (A)

Milwaukee receives 2B Paul Molitor and P Luis Leal.
California receives 2B Tommy Hinzo, P Dave Leiper and Milwaukee’s second and third round Amateur draft choices in 1990.

You know, Paul Molitor might be the worst five time All-Star in CDL history. For the most part, Molitor has been an overrated player who needs to hit .300 to help his team. Luckily for the Brewers, Molitor has been hitting .300 this season. In addition to Molitor, the Brewers picked up Luis Leal, who is a fine emergency pitcher to have laying around, but not the guy you want to put into your lineup 30 times as a starter.

Luckily for the Brewers, they did not pay a lot for this Molitor. Hinzo is a second baseman, but someone who is a stopgap alternative for a team that doesn’t plan on contending, rather than someone with actual value. Leiper is a 27 year old reliever who is never going to make it. That’s a fact. He’s been around for a long time and never done anything with his limited talent. You could get him out of the FA pool. So, basically, the Angels took a second and third round pick for an overrated 2B. I don’t care much for Molitor, but I think someone would have paid more if the Angels were more patient in their talent search.

Winner: Milwaukee

San Diego receives P Matt Young.
Los Angeles receives IF Len Sakata.

You know, most divisions go out of their way not to trade with a divisional rival. I think if I look hard enough, I will find that every team in the NL West has traded with every other team in the NL West in the last two seasons. I point this out, because there is just nothing to say about Matt Young and Len Sakata that you want to read.

Look, Matt Young is a decent pitcher, but no different from 100 other decent pitchers. Len Sakata is a solid middle infielder who can’t play SS. He has a so-so bat and is 35. The Dodgers looked like contenders before the season started and do so again with the titans of the NL West falling flat. However, Sakata probably wasn’t going to be the man to take them there as a starting 3B.

Winner: San Diego

Philadelphia receives P David Wells and C Mike Stanley.
Los Angeles receives C Greg Myers and Philadelphia’s first round Amateur draft choice in 1990.

You know, David Wells was once the 12th pick overall in a draft, despite having the talent of a second round pitcher. After basically trading a first round pick for him, the Phillies have left Wells in AAA for the season. Though, the Phillies have had a host of other options to stick into the rotation, it makes no sense to acquire such a mediocre starter at such a high price.

Further, Mike Stanley has a lot of talent, but has done nothing to be anything more than a big bust. His power and patience have yet to develop and most likely, with Stanley at 26, will never develop. To get Stanley, the Phillies gave up Greg Myers. Myers is three years younger and has a lower ceiling. However, at 23, Myers is very close to reaching his ceiling, which means that he will almost certainly be a more valuable player. While the Phillies are quite good this season, in a few years, they will regret having made this deal.

Winner: Los Angeles (You know, Chris has gone from being the ATR Whipping Boy to one of the most dangerous people in the CDL to trade with. Food for thought.)

San Francisco receives P Erik Hansen and 3B German Rivera.
Los Angeles receives CF Steve Finley, Boston’s first round Amateur draft choice in 1990, San Francisco’s first round Amateur draft choices in 1990 and 1991 and the satisfactory knowledge that the Emperor is wearing no clothes.

WOW!!!!! That’s really all that needs to be said about this deal. The Dodgers took the Giants to school on this deal in what is perhaps the most dramatic balance of power change the NL West has ever seen. This deal is Top 10 All-Time Lopsided. Someday, if there is a light trading season, I will go back and make a legitimate top 10 list.

Anyway, Erik Hansen should be a number 1 starting pitcher in the CDL. There is little doubt he has the talent to make it to that level. He is 24 and was probably one of the top 10 prospects in baseball when the season started. 1989 has not been his best year, but it’s a solid learning year for the youngster. German Rivera is a solid third baseman. He’s 29 and been solid for most of his career, but never good or great.

Now, would you give up the equivalent of FOUR first round picks for a very good pitcher and a so-so 3B? I know I wouldn’t make such a foolish deal, not even for Don Robinson. Steve Finley is going to be a fine centerfielder for the next ten seasons, even if he has been traded twice this year. And those three first round Amateur draft choices are going to be a late round pick from Boston, a mid-round pick from San Francisco this year and a top ten pick at worst from San Francisco next season. OUCH!!!!! The Giants are going to miss that pick after they struggle to win 70 games next season, because you can’t expect a handout from the Twins to keep you in the hunt every season.

Winner: Los Angeles

What is a Philly?: Beyond the Numbers

This article was posted on Tuesday, September 23 2003 by Dodgers.

In 1988, the Philles ended a 17 year run of watching the playoffs from home. Many belived the Phillies to be a fluke and expected them to lay down and let give the Wildcard back to the Central or the West where it has been since the Wildcard was introduced in 83. Montreal was assumed to be the favorite to win the NL East with such rising stars as Lenny Dykstra, Ruben Seirra, Tom Glavine, Kevin Brown, and Jose Guzman. This Cinderella Story was supposed to end in '88, but we forgot to tell the Phillies.

The Wildcard isnt good enough for them this year. They are playing like the want the whole damn thing. They have slipped since their amazing start in May. But still hold the NL East with a 6 game lead over Atlanta. They hold the 2nd best record in the leauge under the upstart Cardinals. Even if the Phils fail to reach the playoffs in '89, they have proven that '88 was no Fluke. The big question still remains though....What exactly is a Philly?

Pitching
W-L
ERA
IP
HR
BB
K
David Cone
10-6
2.97
136.1
19
37
141
Mike Scott
8-4
2.87
125.1
7
27
73
Bret Saberhagen
7-4
3.29
112
11
23
88
Lamar Hoyt
6-7
3.43
105
7
40
39
Joe Price
6-1
3.01
71.2
3
18
67
Steve Crawford
5-0
2.34
61.2
4
9
55
Rawly Eastwick
4-4
3.32
38
0
19
15
Jim Gott
2-2
3.86
37.1
3
16
37
Paul Assenmacher
3-5
6.32
37
4
18
39
Tim Crews
2-2
2.34
34.2
1
4
23
Will Mcenaney
0-3
5.46
29.2
7
11
22

Heres where the Phillies shine. Price, Saberhagen, Cone, and new the rotation this year, Mike Scott. A 4 man rotation that will shut down hitters, and rack up the K's while doing so. Joe Price is currently out of the lineup for 3-4 weeks, and the Phills have definately felt the loss. Since the injury, Philadelphia has dropped from the 1st best staff in the leauge, to the 3rd best. Not much of a drop, but 3-4 more weeks without Price might just allow the Braves to get back in the Hunt. Once Price comes back, if the staff stays healthy, i have no doubts that Philly will see the playoffs again, and their first pennant since 1971.

The Phillies Bullpin, while not spectacular, does its job nicely. Steve Crawford and Tim Crews have been locking down the wins for Philly starters, while Assenmacher and Gott have been shakey, but should improve in the months ahead. The rest of the pin are mearly space fillers, and should enjoy their moments in the sun while they last.

The biggest strength for Philly pitchers is in getting K's. The staff is ranked 1st in opponets AVG as hitters are being stunned by the speed in which this team throws. David Cone should remain a Marquee pitcher in years to come, and will most likely lead this team to more than 1 playoff birth.

Offense and Defense

AVG
OBP
SLG
RBI
R
HR
SB
OPS
LF Willie Mcgee
.286
.341
.454
40
62
13
13
.795
RF Tim Raines
.327
.426
.426
41
59
9
29
.917
CF Kirby Puckett
.280
.320
.440
44
46
11
6
.760
3B Buddy Bell
.266
.301
.453
35
28
8
0
.755
1B John Kruk
.267
.382
.357
32
45
1
2
.739
2B Marty Barrett
.259
.298
.387
45
39
5
1
.685
SS Cal Ripken
.263
.324
.368
34
29
5
0
.693
C John Stearns
.282
.340
.406
33
26
2
6
.746


The Phils dont have the best offence, but its not the worst. The phillys rely on speed, and good solid contact hitting to score runs. The team has no amazing sluggers such as Baines or Mcgriff, but all 8 men in the lineup work together to make this offence spark. 1 premier slugger could turn this average offence into a real monster. For now though, 6 guys that are slugging above .400 in the everyday lineup does just fine.

To round off a great team, Philly has a solid defence. Cal Ripken, Marty Barret, and Kirby Puket are some of the best feilders in the game. Solid strikeout pitchers, plus top notch defence equals very few runs allowed. Phillys are 3rd in the leauge for that stat.

Farm System



Phillys farm system isnt barren, and there is alot of talent hidden, but most of them would fill positions the phillys really dont need. Mike Stanley, Greg Jeffries, Steve Olin, amd Al Leiter are probably the only guys that will see time on the suad, but the Phils have alot of sleeper prospects that may one day produce well in a major leauge lineup. Overall, the team is fairly young, and has few holes...so a strong farm system isnt that important for Philly at this stage. One thing that may come back to hurt them is that they have no 1st picks for the next 2 drafts, so the farm system can only get thinner and thinnger for the next 2 years.

Future Predictions



The NL East is no longer the NL Least, although montreal is struggling right now, The East is chocked full of good talent, and should prove to be a tough division for years to come. I see Philly with the pennant this year, and a dog fight for it next year.

Get Prepared for the next BTN, when the auhor uses HTML!!

Volume 37 of the ATR Report

This article was posted on Sunday, September 21 2003 by Anonymous_Trade_Reporter.

The ATR hoped to spearhead a writing revolution, but seemingly only brings entertainment to the masses. If I can only bring the circus to the beer, so be it, though the ATR had high expectations of not being the only ring the circus often has. Anyway, you’ve waited long enough for the newest ATR and the newest ATR you shall have.

San Diego receives P Tom Gordon
Houston receives San Diego’s first round Amateur draft choice in 1989.

An interesting rearrangement of top shelf prospects. San Diego was going to select sixth in the draft, but realized that there was only one good starting pitching prospect in the entire draft. (If you think Ben McDonald is going to be at the front of a playoff team’s rotation one of these years, you are sadly mistaken.) The Padres obviously felt they had their outfield, which the draft was deep in, covered for years to come with Ellis Burks and Mike Greenwell.

Instead, they landed Tom Gordon. Gordon was the lesser of the two Astro pitching prospects, as his control is only pedestrian, rather than excellent. Nonetheless, the Padres’ starting pitching is what is keeping them from their first playoff appearance. If Gordon develops into a quality rotation anchor, the Padres could be a force to be reckoned with in the 1990s.

The Astros received a draft pick which almost certainly was to select an outfielder. The only other player that could have fallen to them would be 1B John Olerud, but the Astros are already blessed with two good first baseman, more than the number of good outfielders they have. Given the almost complete lack of offense the Astros have mustered this season, a quality, power hitting outfielder is just what the doctor ordered.

Both team benefited from this deal. Things like this keep happening and the ATR will have to find a new subject to write about.

Winner: San Diego (Gordon is ranked higher than Justice)

Milwaukee receives P Lary Sorenson
San Francisco receives P Scott Bankhead, 2B Keith Miller and Milwaukee’s first round Amateur draft choice in 1990.

A little research goes a long way. I have more than a sneaking suspicion that the Milwaukee Brewers management didn’t do their homework on the talent drops of Lary Sorenson and paid a heavy price for a mediocre starter with an albatross contract. That’s not entirely true as Sorenson is still a good starting pitcher, but not at $11,000,000 a season until 1993.

While ridding themselves of a bad contract, the Giants added some quality parts. Bankhead should be a quality pitcher for the Giants. He has a problem with the longball, but otherwise has very good pitching skills. Keith Miller can play just about anywhere and should hit for a good batting average. He will never be a star, but he is the type of player who looks good playing 2B and hitting seventh. And the Giants get a first round pick. The pick won’t be too high in the draft, but to get three young players with upside and get rid of a $55,000,000 disaster is still a great deal in my book.

Winner: San Francisco

San Francisco receives P Rick Rhoden
Cleveland receives San Francisco’s fourth round Amateur draft choice in 1989.

A deal that set the CDL on its ear. Rick Rhoden should give the Kane Bennels all the pitching they need to win the National League A Ball League. Seriously, why would you waste a fourth round pick on Rick Rhoden if you weren’t even going to keep him in AAA awaiting the next blowup of a Giant starter. Of course, do you really want to have to turn to Rick Rhoden when things go bad? I know I wouldn’t. The Indians did a good thing by getting an almost useless young player for him, as the youngster has a chance of getting 8 talent bumps and being productive for the Indians. I keep tell you to watch out for the Indians, but no one believes me.

Winner: Cleveland

St. Louis receives Ps Francisco Barrios and Bruce Sutter and SS Tony Perezchica.
California receives OFs Darryl Hamilton and Danny Tartabull and Los Angeles’s first round Amateur draft choice in 1989.

Nobody else has noticed this, but Bruce Sutter is the first pitcher in CDL history to have 500 saves. Oddly, despite being the anointed closer of the Redbirds this year, he doesn’t lead his team in saves, but he is on pace to throw around 130 innings of stellar relief and a big part of why the Cardinals are on track for their first playoff appearance in CDL history. Francisco Barrios has great talent, but has never really been able to convert them into quality performances. He’s too old to be a good tease, but nonetheless continues to get 30+ starts as people hope he will have that 18-7, 2.50 ERA season. Perezchica is a solid SS prospect and it is surprising to see him sent from a rebuilding team to a contending team. But sometimes you have to sweeten your vets to get talent back.

California is rebuilding their outfield in one fell swoop. Tartabull has looked like a first rate young talent for years, but has never fulfilled any of his promise. His downside is as a lefty masher, but at 26, could still develop into an everyday corner outfielder. Darryl Hamilton looks like a classic tweener outfielder. He has the offensive profile of a centerfielder with good speed and decent hitting skills, but has the defense of a corner outfielder. Players like this can be problematic. He’s better than having a bad outfielder, but could easily lure you into think that Rightfield isn’t a problem when it really is. Finally, the Angels received a first round draft pick, which will probably produce the best player of the group. The Angels have some dangerous outfield options, though dangerous to who is the question.

Winner: St. Louis

California receives 3B Matt Williams, LF Stan Javier, 1B Mark Grace, SS Ozzie Guillen, OF Joe Charboneau and P Andy Rincon.
Los Angeles receives P Don Robinson, OFs Gary Roenicke and Ruppert Jones, 3B German Rivera, SS Ed Jurak and California’s first round Amateur draft choice in 1989.

The two trades on the message board are almost certainly one deal. Generally, I would open with a shot about trading for a player with a large contract over 30, but if the player is Steve Busby when Steve Busby was Cy Busby or a similar best pitcher in the CDL, you can overlook trading for such a commitment. Trading for a player of Don Robinson’s caliber made the Dodgers the favorite in the NL West this season.

The Dodgers also surrounded their new acquisition with a number of veteran talents. Roenicke and Jones have the talent of a pair of offensive anchors, though neither has produced as much as the Dodgers have hoped for. Ed Jurak is another veteran acquisition in this deal. He’s a great glove at short. German Rivera is another ready regular that the Dodgers added to bolster a weakened offense.

Oddly enough, in order to ship the best pitcher in the CDL with some quality veterans, the Angels needed to send their first round pick in 1989 to the Dodgers. Here lies the main point, if your team was good enough to win the World Series, why would you immediately begin rebuilding. The playoffs are such a crapshoot that it pays to take every chance you can, not trade away youth and the best pitcher in baseball for a pile of decent, but not great players.

The best player the Angeles received in return was Mark Grace. Grace has the potential to be a good first baseman, but not a great one. He will get on base, but provide minimal power at one of the few positions you can get some power for your offense. Stan Javier is a quality centerfielder. He hits for a good average and has blazing speed, but really doesn’t bring anything else to the table offensively. Matt Williams has great power potential, but will probably struggle to hit .240 in the majors, making him something of an enigma, something of a liability. Andy Rincon was an average pitcher, who is having a great year and a talent bump, but also an injury. I imagine he will be giving his new found talent right back real soon. Ozzie Guillen is a great fielder, but will never be more than an adequate fielder. Finally, Joe Charboneau is filler. He will never be anything more than a bad starter/acceptable fourth outfielder.

The Angels gave up a first round pick, the best pitcher in the league and four quality veterans for a big, hot, steaming pile of mediocrity. I think it is time to pen the eulogy for the Angels’ pennant hopes for the 1990s.

Winner: Los Angeles