Week of November 16, 2003

Volume 49 of the ATR Report

On the road with the ATR. I bet you never thought you would see the day that the ATR would file a column from the road, but the day is here. While I lack the complete ATR archive and access to the league file, I can make do with the numbers on the page and the memories at hand.

Houston receives 3B Gary Sheffield.
Milwaukee receives P Al Leiter and Boston’s second round Amateur draft choice in 1991.

The question that you need to ask to analyze this trade is whether pitching is truly more valuable than hitting. I will answer this question in the negative.

A great hitter is going to be a highly productive force regardless of the players around him. A great pitcher may have his production adjusted downward by the players around him, as he could be subject to a poor defense.

Sheffield is without a doubt the best hitting prospect in the league at the moment. He plays a flawless third base (though may have to move to the outfield to get a full shot at a job in Houston, where his defense is more in the passable range) and has the ability to hit for power and average while drawing 100 walks a year. He is only 21 and ready for the show next year, where he will contend for the Rookie of the Year award.

To get Sheffield, the Astros parted with Al Leiter. Well, Al Leiter and a late second round pick, which really says, Leiter isn’t worth as much as Sheffield to either team. Leiter has the potential to be a very good number 2 starter. What will hold him back is that his control is a little shaky. The lack of top flight control means that Leiter will be prone to periods where he slips a little in control and the number of runs he gives up will spike. Leiter did have a solid rookie season and should build upon his successes next season.

Additionally, the Astros were able to use one of Leiter’s six cheap seasons. Combined with the fact that Leiter is three years older than Sheffield, there is no way that you can believe that Leiter, a good pitcher is in the same league, talentwise as a great hitter in Sheffield.

Winner: Houston

Milwaukee receives P Doug Corbett.
Kansas City receives Milwaukee’s third round Amateur draft choice in 1991.

The Brewers decided to bring home Doug Corbett for the playoff run. Corbett has been a good reliever at times, though later in his career, Corbett has become more of a mediocre/last man in the pen kind of pitcher. For a team headed to the playoffs with a hole in their bullpen, he is not a bad acquisition.

The Royals, seeing that they had fallen out of contention, wisely flipped their newest player for something that would be of value down the road. For a rebuilding team that takes on salaried players in a deal, this is the ideal strategy. Even if Kansas City is only receiving 50 percent of Corbett’s value, Kansas City comes out ahead in the deal, because they are taking an asset with no value to them and converting it into one that has some value to them. The Royals look like they are one of the up and coming teams in the American League.

Winner: Kansas City

Los Angeles receives CF Lance Johnson.
Cleveland receives RF Glenallen Hill and P Kevin Gross.

The Indians were a team on the verge of making the playoffs for the first time in 15 seasons. However, their pitching appeared to be atrocious. Seeing a flaw in the club, the Indians set out to acquire a quality pitcher to help them get past the Red Sox and Blue Jays. While they failed to actually pass either team, they did put together a good effort and are in position to challenge the Blue Jays for the division title next season.

Kevin Gross is by far the best pitcher the Indians have. He has bounced around from Boston to Los Angeles to Cleveland, but has all the skills you want in your second starter. He is effective and consistant. He will never be an ace, as there are questions about his durability, but if the Indians can find a starter to put in front of him, they are in a good position for years to come.

Along with Gross, the Indians acquired outfielder Glenallen Hill. Hill is nearing the stage in his career where he turns from prospect to suspect. He has all the tools to be a quality corner outfielder with good power and decent on base skills, but has yet to show those skills either in the minor leagues or as an outfielder coming off the bench for the Dodgers.

To acquire these players, the Indians had to part with fleet footed outfielder Lance Johnson. Johnson is 27 and only made his major league debut this season. Johnson is an exceptional base stealing threat, a very good fielder and has the skillset to hit for a high batting average. However, Johnson lacks any secondary skills on offense aside from stealing bases. If the Dodgers can resist the temptation to use Johnson as a leadoff hitter, then they will have a productive player towards the bottom of their lineup. If not, the Dodgers will be placing a millstone into their lineup, decreasing an offense that needs all the help it can get to combat Chavez Ravine.

Winner: Cleveland

Pittsburgh receives P Mark Langston.
Kansas City receives Pittsburgh’s first round Amateur draft choice in 1991.

The Pirates have been placing all their chips on this year and this trade is another example of that.

Langston is a fine pitcher. Like Gross, he is a consistent number 2 or number 3 starting pitcher. He has a decent contract and gives the Pirates a second lefthander to throw at teams in the playoffs. Also like Gross, he has a solid contract and is signed for a few more years. But unlike Cleveland, Pittsburgh has a horse in Roger Clemens to throw at teams as their ace, which takes some of the pressure of Langston’s performance.

The Royals have gone into a full rebuilding mode. While Langston is a good pitcher, it is unlikely that he would be around when the next (or first as it may be) good Royals team emerges. Unfortunately for the Royals, they will almost certainly be unable to get a good pitching prospect to replace Langston towards the end of Round 1. Though, the Royals should be able to get a solid hitter if they choose to go in that direction. This isn’t a bad deal for the Royals, but rather this is a deadline deal where the giving team does not realize the full value of the traded player.

Winner: Pittsburgh

Montreal receives 1B Kelvin Moore.
St. Louis receives P Jack Armstrong.

Talk about going out with a thud. Armstrong is a live armed pitching suspect going from an organization filled with better pitchers to one where he might have a chance at carving out a career. Kelvin Moore is a below average 1B, whose one redeeming value is hitting for a high average. This skill has netted him more playing time than he has deserved. At this stage of his career, he is most valuable as a platoon player or a bench sitter. Thud indeed.

Winner: St. Louis

Montreal Expos: Beyond the Numbers

At the end of the 1980's, the Montreal Expos were an enigma. How could a team
with so much talent not be dominant in the NL East? The Expos had a full rotation
of young aces, and a whole crop of young batting talent. Evem with some solid
talent, the Expos continued to sit near the bottom of the NL East and horde
young talent aquired via draft. These young studs are starting to mature and
the Expos now have one of the best teams in the leauge. Not only do they have
a group of player good enough to get Montreal to the playoffs this year, but
the Expos have 4-5 good players waiting for their shot in the bigs, that should
ensure the success of this team for the rest of the decade. Montreal has become
on of the best teams in the NL, and by far the best in the NL East.

Pitching -

The Expos are stocked with good young pitchers. The avg age of an Expos starter
is 26, and all of them are number 1 starters on almost any team in the leauge.
Montreals staff is what has gotten them so far this season, and it will be the
backbone of this team for a long time..

Most of the innings soaked up are from the 4 ace starters montreal has. They
account for roughly 2/3 of the pitching done by this staff. Montreal pitchers
also rack up the K's. They have the 4th most K's in the leauge with 1146. It
is hard to pick a pure ace of this staff as Guzman, Brown, and Glavine are all
quality starters, and with a few more years of development will be competing
woith one another for the NL Cy Young.

Montreals bullpin is top notch, but has been inconsistant the last few years.
Montreals entire team has been rather inconsistant though, so im sure the Expos
bullpin will prove its worth in years to come. The bullpin is starting to show
signs of age, but montreal should still have a few more years of solid production
out of them. MR Salome Barojas has proven in the past that he is better than
he is currently playing, and should turn his game around next year.

Lineup -

Montreals offence compliments its pitching staff very nicely. Most of the Expos
are still young and will only get better with age. The greatest victory for
the Expos in 1990 was the emerging of 3B HoJo. He proved that he has the skill
to lead this team, now he and the rest of the Montreal Lineup just needs to
contimue in the same direction.

Speed, power, and good solid hitting skills make up this great lineup. Most
of the runs come from the 1st 5 hitters in the lineup, but the rest put up their
fair share. Montreal starts the lineup with 5 viable power threats, 4 of them
with speed. These 5 players, Johnson, Moseby, Parrish, Seirra, and Dykstra,
are key parts of this lineup, and will definately impact a game. Only Parrish
is aging among these 5 players, and he has a decent replacement, waiting for
his shot in AAA. The bottom of the lineup had an off year in 1990, but should
definately improve next year, and turn the Expos offence into one of the top
in the leauge.

Minor Leauge System -

Next year will be huge for the Expos lineup, as 2B Craig Biggio, and OF Ray
Lankford will make their big leauge debuts. Biggio is a 2B, but has shown alot
of skill at C, and will probably make his way behind the plate when Parrish
is gone. 3B Robin Ventura and SS Tim Naehring still have some development left,
but will be solid contributers when they are ready. With the youth that Montreal
has active, with the youth they have waiting in the minors, I think Montreal
has the best young team in the leauge. The Expos could use a couple of good
MR's, but other than that, their furture looks set.

Future Predictions -

Montreal finished at the top of the NL East but lost to the Giants in the playoffs
in 1990. The Expos should finish at the top of the NL East for quite some time,
so a World Series Ring is not out of the question. If the Expos dont have any
major injurys due to their 4 man rotation, i predecit at least one, maybee two
World Series apperances for the Expos.

1990 Giants vs 1975 Giants

With a first place finish this year in the national league west, the Giants look to revisit the hunt for the coveted series title. The Giants finished with a record of 98 and 64, four games ahead of the Padres. It has been 15 seasons since the Giants won their first world series. That team was a mix of strong pitching and a solid one/two punch in the heart of the lineup. Lets take a look at both teams and compare their clubs....

The '75 Giants finished with a record of 106 wins and 56 loses, a full eight games better in the win column. Team hitting was .251 (compared to the '90 Giants at .266) while team pitching was 2.73 (compared to 3.43 in '90)..my guess here is that overall, team batting averages have gone up while pitching era's have gone up but thats another research topic..

Individually, lets look at the position players...

Catcher: In '75, Don Pavletich finished with a .200 average and 12 home runs. He added 74 ribbies. '90's version is in Terry Steinbach, who finished at .262/19/82. Give the nod to the '90 club.

First Base: '75 was a down year for the great Cecil Cooper. Cooper finished his career taking home a Cdl record 3 Mvp awards. In '75 he finished at .293/23/105. The '90 Giants have aging Pedro Guerrero who finished with .302/21/97. Cooper gets the nod here.

Second Base: One of the first big trades the Giants made was to acquire Rod Carew from the Twins. The twins sent Dave Wickersham along with Carew for star shortstop prospect, Rick Burlson and pitcher Tom Phoebus. Carew finished the '75 year at .302/12/68 with 66 stolen bases. The '90's club features newly acquired Jose Oquendo who finished at .273/1/54 along with an impressive .370 obp. Carew gets the nod here.

Shortstop: In '75, the great legend, Tim Foli was the regular shortstop. Providing great defense and the ocassional timely hit (specially in the playoffs), he finished the year at .219/2/23. The presend day club offers Tony Fernandez, who struggled to reach .263 with 32 steals. Fernandez gets the nod.

Third Base: '75 began the era of George Brett. He finished at only .299/6/80, giving Giants fans a taste of what was to become a great career. The '90 club had newcomer, Bobby Bonilla, an early season pick up from Seattle. He finished at .289/10/67 along with some solid defensive play. Brett gets the nod here.

Outfield: In '75, Joe Lahoud let the club with 31 home runs and 101 ribbies. Along with Cooper, the two provided the Giants with a good one two punch in the heart of the lineup. Of course, Lahoud was a great pick up from the Astros, who, apparently could not get along with Joe's rather tempermental agent. Mack Jones provided more punch with 24 home runs and Carl Taylor, long time Giants outfielder, finished with .241/11/51. Mickey Stanley also contributed 13 home runs. The '90s club featured slugger Dan Pasqua's best year to date, finishing at .263/33/117. Leon Durham added 25 home runs and 107 ribbies. With Shane Mack out for most of the year and suffering a talent hit, Charlie Moore stepped up to finish with a solid .294 average. Mack finished at .335 in limited duty. Give the nod here to the '90's club outfield.

Pitching: The '75 club featured the great Ross Grimsley, who finished at 25-8 with a 2.38 era. He won the Cy Young award that year for his efforts. The club got surprising seasons out of two average pitchers in Jim Merritt (13-11, 2.27) and Tom Murphy at 23-8 and 2.99. The strength lay in the bullpen with relief greats Vincent Romo (2.54/44 saves), Barry Lersch (8-2, 2.53) and Mike Hedlund (10-7 and 1.77). The '90s club featured two aging veterans with perhaps their last great seasons. John Candalaria (36) finished at 20-5, 2.71 while Willie Hernandez (35) finished with 18-8, 2.49. Eric Hanson finished strong with 17 wins and a 3.75 era and Scott Bankhead finished with a 3.73 era and nine wins. The bullpen struggled. With serious injuries to Corsi and Lucas, most of the pen finished well below their capability. The one exception was closer Bryan Harvey who finished with 23 saves and an era of 2.02. Give the edge to the '75 club, on the basis of a much stronger bullpen.


The Cdl in 1975 was a differant league. Guys like Joe Lahoud and Cecil Cooper had ratings of six in average and nine in homeruns...and they were the stars in the league. Todays Cdl features at least a couple of guys with this capability on most teams. Cooper, finishing with his stats, actually won the Mvp award that year. Pitching, on the other hand, has become more of a lost art, especially in the bullpen. A number of clubs boasted three or four great relievers each. Today, that is much more rare. A young good starter is a goldmine now, even 7 rated starters are increasinly more valuable. You could pick up a 7 rated starter for a bag of nails in '75.

So which club is better...hard to say but my sentimental favorite would be the '75 club with its pitching strength and 106 wins.

chuck groening