With the trading deadline fast approaching, the ATR needs to start working at double speed to get all of the trades analyzed before the season ends. Superstar OF Darryl Strawberry has been traded twice and neither of these deals has been analyzed. So, let’s not waste any time!
Texas receives CF Tony Armas
Montreal receives SS Roy Smalley
Before looking at this deal, I knew very little about Tony Armas. I’m sure most of you know very little about Tony Armas as well. Well, to catch everyone up to speed, Armas is a fine, dependable player. (Aside from 1986) Armas hits for good power, maintains a decent batting average, plays a solid centerfield and does a decent job of getting on base. However, Armas is 35 and fast approaching retirement. Luckily for the Rangers, Armas is also a free agent at season’s end and has done a fine job pushing the Rangers back to the playoffs for another shot at the title.
To acquire Armas, the Rangers sent Roy Smalley to the Expos. Like Armas, Smalley is 35, has decent power, gets on base and unlike Armas is a first rate fielder. Unfortunately, Smalley is making over $8,000,000 this season, but his contract is up at season’s end. Smalley also lacks a certain something in his ability to collect base hits.
Both of these players are very similar, but once the Rangers picked up Spike Owen, Smalley became superfluous and getting a similar player to play a position where they had a hole is a good thing. If you were to ask, what is the perfect trade, I would point to this one.
Winner: Texas
Kansas City receives RF Darryl Strawberry, P Dan Plesac and CF Jesse Barfield
San Francisco receives LF Dan Pasqua and P Bryan Harvey
This deal comes down to one fact, Darryl Strawberry is the best platoon player in the league, but should never, ever face a left handed pitcher. Strawberry is death to righties and that’s a big part of why he has hit 145 home runs before his 27th birthday and why he was the first pick overall in 1983.
In addition to Darryl, the Royals picked up a couple of other useful players. Dan Plesac is not the best closer in the game today, but he is a quality closer who has good talent and is still young and cheap. Jesse Barfield plays great defense and hits for power. But Barfield should rarely be your first choice for a starter in the outfield, as he is all power and some walks, but no batting average. Barfield is more of a good 4th outfielder/injury replacement.
To acquire these talents, the Royals gave up two, highly coveted youngsters. Harvey is well on his way to being one of the best closers in the league. He is as talented as any pitcher designated to throw the ninth and is still young enough to make the most of his talent. Dan Pasqua is more of an odd case. Pasqua is a very talented young hitter. But he is 26 and still has a good amount of difficulty hitting for average. Pasqua is very close to becoming another Jesse Barfield without the leather, which isn’t a pretty thought.
I think most people would think this was a major steal for the Royals, since they added Strawberry for a loss of a few years of age in two players, but Strawberry is an expensive FA to be and a platoon player at best. Not the prettiest combination.
Winner: Kansas City
Pittsburgh receives OF/C Dale Murphy and Chicago (N)’s second round Amateur draft choice in 1990.
Chicago (N) receives P Bobby Thigpen and Pittsburgh’s first round Amateur draft choices in 1989 and 1990 and Pittsburgh’s third round Amateur draft choice in 1990.
The Pirates are the team to beat in 1988 and acquiring Dale Murphy is a big part of that. That being said, this is a horrible deal for the Pirates.
Dale Murphy is an excellent hitter who has the ability to catch. However, Dale Murphy is 32 years old and signed for the next five seasons at $9,000,000 per season. This season, Dale Murphy has been good for an OPS of .850, which is good for 13th in the National League. Assuming a 025 decline each season, will the Pirates be enjoying Murphy and his contract in three seasons when his OPS is .775 or at .750 in the last season of his contract? Of course not. And there is a good chance it could be even worse. The pick the Pirates received will offset a good deal of the loss of one of the first round picks traded away, since the 1989 Cubs will be two seasons removed from the end of one of the CDL’s great 10 season runs.
To acquire Murphy, the Pirates paid a hefty price. Two first round picks were sent to the Cubs to aid them in their rebuilding, as well as a third round pick no one cares about. The player the Pirates sent was Bobby Thigpen, who has graduated from setup man to closer with the trade to the Cubs. Thigpen hasn’t been amazing this season, but once he adjusts, the Cubs will have a force at the end of their bullpen for years to come. This is a fairly good haul for a 32 year old player with a big contract and almost guaranteed decline. Especially considering the Pirates really needed a starting pitcher, not a catcher.
Winner: Chicago (N)
San Diego receives P Bob Veselic
Los Angeles receives P Ricky Wright
Shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic wouldn’t have saved it just as shuffling mediocre relievers who signed big extensions won’t save a team’s playoff chances.
Winner: Los Angeles (Wright took $200,000 less to sign)
Los Angeles receives SS Ozzie Guillen and a barrel.
New York (N) receives 3B Nick Esasky, SS Harry Chappas and P Kirk McCaskill.
If this transaction were to occur in a business, someone would be fired for allowing such a theft. Harry Chappas is a better shortstop than Ozzie Guillen, since at least Harry has a decent bat. To throw in a quality 3B in Esasky and a quality SP in McCaskill makes absolutely no sense. Was Chris negotiating against himself? Did Les say, “What about Esasky and Chappas for Guillen?” and Chris turn around and say “Well, what about Esasky, Chappas and McCaskill for Guillen?” not realizing that he had possession of McCaskill.
I would include some numbers for you to read about Guillen, but this is a family-oriented ATR and things as gruesome as that are not fit for eyes under the age of 18.
Winner: New York (N)
Baltimore's Rafael Palmeiro was named the rookie of the month of June in which he hit .408 with 12 doubles, 2 triples, 4 HRs, and 13 RBI. Palmeiro was Baltimore's 1st round pick in 1986, 11th overall, and has a solid .285 season average with 7 HRs and 33 RBI. His OPS is a solid .778 and is certainly on the rise.
Others considered were Kansas City's Glenn Davis (.321, 11 HRs, 20 RBI), Milwaukee's Edar Martinez (.315, 2 HRs, 12 RBI), Baltimore's Jeff Blauser (.297, 3 HRs, 18 RBI), and Milwaukees Jack McDowell (3-2, 1.88 ERA, 38.1 IPs).
In the National League Los Angeles' Stan Javier takes home the hardware with an impressive .353 average with 3 doubles, 5 triples, 2 HRs, and 14 RBI. Javier was originally drafted by Toronto in 1984 in the 2nd round, 31st overall. He was then traded to Houston along with Jerry Ujdur for Tom Henke and Mickey Hatcher. He was then traded just over 2 years later to Los Angeles in the Mark McGwire deal.
Also considered were St. Louis' Kevin Mitchell (.299, 2 HRs, 8 RBI), Houston's Jay Bell (.292, 1 HR, 16 RBI), and New York's Roberto Kelly (.284, 1 HR, 17 RBI).
The ATR has noticed that the newspaper is filled with vibrant articles from many of the leagues members, most notably that both of the ATR’s whipping boys past and present are well represented with column inch. I insist this is an attempt to squeeze the ATR off the newspaper completely. Of course, I would never abandon my fans, even in the face of competition. And deep down inside, you are all very interested in seeing who was traded and more importantly, who was the winner of the deal. You can’t help loving me. On to the trades!!!!!
San Francisco receives C Terry Steinbach and P Eric Plunk.
Los Angeles receives C Darryl Cias and St. Louis’ first round Amateur draft choice in 1988.
Alright, raise your hands if you thought the Dodgers would be in second place at this stage of the season. (Any of you who are raising your hands are bold faced liars, since Chris thought his Dodgers would be in first place and the rest of you thought they would be in last place or perhaps third place.) Additionally, no one thought the Giants would be in third place in the National League West. Granted, the Giants would be in second place in any other division in the National League, but this is still quite the shock.
When initially looking at this trade, I couldn’t figure out what the Giants were thinking. I came to the conclusion that the Giants thought they were still the class of the NL West by a large margin and could afford to shuffle the deck this season, win the division title and prepare for the ascendancy of the Astros, Dodgers and Padres. Looking at the standings, one can tell that next year came this year for all of these clubs. But if they were really reloading, wouldn’t they just have kept the draft pick and tried to land a much needed starting pitcher?
So, for the Cardinals’ pick, the Giants added two young players who have the talent to contribute for the Giants for years to come, but both have exploitable weaknesses. Steinbach is an excellent defensive catcher and should hit for a decent batting average. But at 26, he is unlikely to develop the power potential he has into home runs. Rather, Steinbach will end up a run of the mill catcher, who neither pushes you towards or away from a championship. The better player of the deal is relief pitcher Eric Plunk. Plunk has a lot of the attributes you look for in a reliever. He excels at preventing hits, gets strikeouts like a paranoid person gets bottled water before a hurricane, and does a good job at keeping the ball in the park. Unfortunately, Plunk throws hard, which helps him rack the Ks, but throws is the appropriate word, since he has less control than an alcoholic at a kegger, which leads to too many walks and so far, too many runs allowed.
The Dodgers added Eric Hanson with the draft choice. Hanson will probably never be the guy at the front of the rotation (at least not for a contender), but should be a fine middle of the rotation or back of the rotation starter for the Dodgers for at least ten seasons. And they added a decent catcher in Darryl Cias. Cias is older, but he can hit lefthanders and makes a decent half of a cheap platoon in a pinch.
If you had told me the Giants and the Dodgers made a trade, the first words out of my mouth would have been, I don’t even need to write this deal up, rather I can just make a snide comment about the Giants taking advantage of the Dodgers, perhaps something like “Chuck brought the shovel to the cellar, dug out a deep hole, pushed the Dodgers into the hole and stole all the fruit that they had canned for the winter and now those peaches are hitting sixth for the best team in the National League.” But that’s the exact opposite of what happened, so it was more of youth having a go at the old guard.
Winner: Los Angeles (Yes, Los Angeles)
Milwaukee receives P Randy Myers
Cincinnati receives OF Mike Felder and Pittsburgh’s second and third round Amateur draft choices in 1988.
We are a Norm Charlton trade away from reuniting the Nasty Boys in the CDL, as Dibble and Myers are currently important members of the Brewers’ bullpen. Myers has the tools to be one of the better lefthanded relievers in the CDL, but so far has yet to do anything with those tools aside from give up runs. However, he is young and talented, so he will have plenty of chances to right his ship.
For a quality reliever, the Brewers gave up two late draft picks and an outfielder who has no business starting for a decent team. The two picks produced Jerald Clark, a similar outfielder with a limited career ahead of him and Jeff Huson, who could play shortstop for someone in the CDL eventually, since there is no such thing as a good and safe young shortstop, so anyone willing could be manning the keystone in 1993.
To be honest, I’d rather have a good reliever with upside than three junky players. You spread the risk amongst three players, so if one tanks, the trade doesn’t kill you, but you need a boost in order to get one of the players to pan out. You might as well put your eggs in the basket that should work, but hasn’t yet.
Winner: Milwaukee
Los Angeles receives 3B Kelly Gruber
St. Louis receives Los Angeles’ third round Amateur draft choice in 1988.
This deal completes the tri-cornered hat of deals involving the Giants, Cardinals and Dodgers covered in this volume and the previous volume. With the draft having passed, I will note that Cardinals received reliever Jose Bautista with the draft choice. Bautista is a solid relief prospect who could be the guy you trust with low leverage situations after you spent the rest of your money on a rotation or an offense. Not bad to have around, but no one you will ever get excited about.
For the privilege of having Bautista around, the Cardinals traded away Kelly Gruber. Gruber is real life famous for having hit 30 home runs in a season once and being the starting third baseman for the World Champion 1992 and 1993 Toronto Blue Jays. In the CDL, Gruber can hit doubles and had a good small sample size year in 1987. He is also a first rate fielder. At best, Gruber is a decent platoon mate for a 3B that bats lefty. In the Dodgers organization, he has become a placeholder until Matt Williams is ready to take the job over permanently.
Trades like this impact both teams, but in more of a subtle way than most trades. The talent amount moved was small, but things could break either way in the end. I’ll use my biases to declare a winner.
Winner: Los Angeles (2 for 2 on the day)
Minnesota receives SS Juan Castillo.
Atlanta receives Minnesota’s second round Amateur draft choice in 1988.
I define desperation as trading a potentially useful draft choice for a player I have never heard of, because you failed to sign someone to play a key position like shortstop in the offseason.
To be fair to the Twins, I have decided to investigate this Juan Castillo character and see what he is all about. Perhaps is a hidden monster with talent that I could not fathom…nope. Juan Castillo is a former fifth round draft choice whose scouting reports opens with, “Try to limit the number of games that Juan Castillo gets in.” Of course, since the Twins have the luck of the Irish on their side (or Canadian, doesn’t matter the nationality of the luck, just the existence of the luck), Castillo is hitting .317 as the regular SS for the Twins with a passable glove. He also has pretty decent talent in stealing bases and drawing walks, but the former has led to a low SB% and the latter has yet to be fulfilled.
The Braves make out in this deal, since there was no way that Castillo was beating out Gary Templeton for the starting shortstop slot, even if Templeton gave the finger to a packed house in Fulton County Stadium. The pick brought the Braves Brian Meyer, who should turn out to be a good reliever for about 7 seasons.
So despite the fact that Castillo is playing the best baseball of his career and the fact the Twins will win their division by 30 games and sweep the Pirates in the World Series, this trade is still atrocious for the them. Castillo will fall apart and Ivan Calderon is not the answer either. A trade for a real SS will be in order before the season ends.
Winner: Atlanta
Los Angeles receives SS Felix Fermin.
San Francisco receives 1B Orestes Destrade.
Another interdivisional trade between these two soon to be perennial rivals. Given the market for shortstops lately, the Dodgers got a steal of a deal. Fermin is young and might hit .250, so eventually, he will land a first round draft choice and an ace pitcher, since he can also play defense. Of course, he is an offensive zero outside of any ability to hit for average and he is stuck behind Ozzie Guillen for the job of overrated mediocrity playing shortstop in Los Angeles.
The Giants added a mediocre 1B who is 26 and has failed to live up to his potential in Destrade. There really isn’t much else to say about either of these players.
When evaluating a deal like this, I wonder, who is more likely to be bumped out of a job because someone was trained to take their spot. I doubt anyone is going to have Fermin’s glove after training, but any stiff can play 1B if they try hard enough. Chris is on a win streak that when I first started writing these trade reports would have been unfathomable. Just as puzzling is the losing streak of the Giants. Is a changing of the guard in the NL West far away?
Winner: Los Angeles
The Minnisota Twins are by far the most dominant team of 1988. So far, at not quite the halfway mark, they are this reporters favorite to win it all. Pitching, offence, defence...the Twins are the complete package. What exactly makes this team tick though? Lets have a look...
--Pitching
1st in runs allowed, 1st in team ERA, 1st in HR's allowed...should i go on? The Twinkies have the best pitching staff i have seen in a long time. 4 veteran starters make up the Twins starting staff and all 4 of them are number 1 starters on almost any other team in the leauge.
Twins Starters - June '88
John Candelaria - 15-0 1.36 ERA
Alan Wirth - 9-3 2.36 ERA
Frank Pastore - 11-4 3.34 ERA
Dave Stieb - 8-6 4.53 ERA
John Candelaria leads this rotation that is ace, after ace after ace. The Candyman has come a long way since his days of average pitching in Oakland. Since being traded from Oakland to San Deigo he has gone 74-48 with an outstanding 2.76 ERA. He only has a few years left of dominant pitching, but at 15-0 (IN JUNE!!!!), what a start to those last few years. The rest of the starters for Minnisota are having average years, although Wirths numbers seem to tell a different story. He is a great pitcher, but just cant seem to pitch more than 5-6 innings at a time. The Twins Starters have pitched 9 complete games, 2 from Pastore, and 7 from Candelaria (is there anything he cant do?), which still leaves a total of 56 games so far this season that the bullpin has seen some action.
Twins Bullpin - June '88
Duane Ward - 1-1 3.77 ERA - 31 Innings
Dan Morogiello - 0-0 5.87 ERA - 23 Innings
Bill Johnson - 2-0 2.16 ERA - 16.2 Innings
Dave Smith - 0-0 1.76 ERA - 15.1 Innings
Wes Gardner - 1-0 3.77 ERA - 14.1 Innings
CL Tome Henke - 3-1 1.74 ERA - 20.2 Innings 1 Blown Save
Even though Dan Morogiello looks like a chump, hes a decent pitcher that had a really bad May (12.00 ERA in 9 Innings). I think he should calm down the rest of this year, and be solid like the rest of the Twins Bullpin. Although the Twins currently have the most dominant pitching in the leauge, there are better staffs out there, mainly because of the lack of depth. They have plenty of great releivers and should have no problem in that area, but if an injury hits one of the Twins 4 starters, they will have to bring up Shane Rawley. Currently, in AAA Rawley is 5-5 with a 4.50 ERA, not exactly the type of guy your anxious to bring up to the bigs. Even without any depth in Starting Pitching, an injury to the Twins starters will do nothing more than piss off Paul Groening. While the Twinkies pitching staff is ranked 1st in the leauge, the offence is ranked 3rd.
--Hitting and Defence
Twins Lineup - June'88
1 - CF Phil Bradley - .316 avg 39RBI .425slg 32SB
2 - 3B Mike Lavalliere - .337 avg 28RBI .427slg .388obp
3 - LF Kal Daniels - .278 avg 42RBI .461slg .388obp 24SB
4 - 1B Alvin Davis - .262 avg 44RBI .385slg .399obp
5 - RF Thad Bosley - .307 avg 54RBI .566slg 12HR .601slg with RSP
6 - DH Randy Johnson - .312 avg 22RBI .402slg .379obp
7 - C Mickey Tettleton - .227 avg 29RBI .338slg .332obp
8 - SS Juan Castillo - .317 avg 24RBI .437slg .343avg vs rightys
9 - 2B Wally Backman - .221 31RBI .324slg .351 obp
This is a lineup filled with above average batters. They arnt ultra power batters like you see in Pittsburg or Boston, they are pure hitters, with the kind of talent managers love. Twins batters will pile up the walks and rarely strike out. Against rightys, the twins have 3 switch hitters, 5 leftys, and only 1 right handed bat...the leadoff. This might be the reason behind the Twins amazing 38-8 record against rightys. Mickey Tettleton and Wally Backman seem to be the only weak spots in this lineup, but in reality, Backman and Castillo are the weak spots, and Backman isnt that bad of a hitter for a great defensive 2B. Castillo is putting up some decent numbers so far, but i think this numbers are gonna drop like a rock after the all-star break. Not only is Castillo not a very talented hitter, but his glove is unacceptable for a player of his position. Look for the Twinkies to make a SS upgrade sometime in the near future. Minnisota may decide to ride out Castillo's good season this year, but my money is on Castillo not starting for the Twins next year. The rest of the Twins Defence isnt half bad. They dont make all the spectacular plays that some teams will, but the defence helps the pitching staff out alot, and keeps the E's to a minimum(with the exception of Castillo).
--Farm System
All of the Starting 9 for Minnisota is below 30, so they are gonna be around for a while. All of them with the exception of Castillo are decent players, so the Twins shouldnt need an upgrade at any of the non SS positions anytime soon. The pitching staff of the Twins is a different story. Candelaria wont be playing at the level he currently is too much longer, and the Twins dont appear to have any starters in the minors to take his place. Minnisota is well under the salary cap and should have no problems picking up someone to replace Candelaria (not another 15-0 pitcher, but a decent arm) in free agency. They should be able to do this for about 3-4 years more, and then salary is gonna catch up to them. This will be a long time from now though, and the only thing that really matters is that the Twins are the team to beat now.
Theres only 2 quality prospects in the Twins minors system right now, 1B Hal Morris, and 2B Keith Miller. Before i start my rant on Morris, Id like to say that Keith will be a great Utility guy, and might just find himself a starting job one of these days, but isnt quite good enough to start for the Twins...not with this rooster, now on to Hal Morris. "SS" Hal Morris has a great bat, and will be a great hitter in the majors in the future. Right now though, he is playing SS for the Visalia Twins in single A. Now, one look at this 6'4 215 lb monster, and you will know he aint no SS. Oh he might just play the position, and he might turn a couple of double plays, but with Hal Morris as your SS, your pitching staff might just get a little upset. He doenst have the speed, agility, or defensive know-how to be a SS. Hal is only 23, and may just prove me wrong one day, and be a damn fine SS, but untill that day i wouldnt have him playing SS for a little leauge team.
Overally, the Twins minors system is in shambles...but i dont think anyone in Minnisota really gives a damn. When your ace pitchers is 15-0 and your team is 50-15, the fans dont really care how good the farm club is doing.
--Problems for the Twinkies
Because the Twins dont have alot of solid prospects right now, they are gonna have to use Free Agency to improve and to fill holes. There are no holes now, but after every season comes a new season, with new problems. The Twins dont care about money, but they do care about salary cap. Improving the squad via Free Agency will raise the Twins Cap, and with guys like Davis, Daniels, and Ward still making 300k, that cap room is gonna get smaller and smaller. Balancing finances will me a problem for the Twins in the future.
What is gonna happen with Candelaria is gone? He is 15-0 but hes 34. 2-3 more years in the majors with numbers like hes putting up now. When Steve Busby left the Brewers, they started to slip...will the same happen to the Twins?
Starting Depth. Like i said before, if one of the starting 4 goes down, Minnisota is stuck with Shane Rawley...and i know the Twins dont want him pitching.
--Future Predictions
Twins is 5...thats my World Series forecast this year. After that...its a tossup. I think that Paul Groening is a great owner, and will overcome all major obsticles that await him in the future. But players are greedy, and may ask for more than the Twins are willing to dish out. The Brewers might make a run for the AL central, but untill Millwaulkees demonstrates some solid pitching, the Twins are the top Seed in the AL Central.